人大代表王毅提交議案，建議在十三五規(guī)劃中納入強(qiáng)制性碳排放總量控制目標(biāo)，以保障碳排放峰值目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)?！笆濉碧寂欧趴偭靠刂颇繕?biāo)的量化已經(jīng)有比較充分的依據(jù)。

全國(guó)人大代表、中科院科技政策與管理科學(xué)研究所所長(zhǎng)王毅提交議案，建議科學(xué)設(shè)定與實(shí)施國(guó)家十三五碳排放總量控制目標(biāo)，以保障碳排放峰值目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)?；谥T多研究機(jī)構(gòu)在2013年的測(cè)算，王毅預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)2030年前后的排放總量將約在110億噸左右。

王毅在議案中稱(chēng)，碳排放總量控制目標(biāo)是實(shí)現(xiàn)“2030年左右達(dá)到碳排放峰值且努力早日達(dá)峰”的必然要求。并且“十三五”碳排放總量控制目標(biāo)的量化已經(jīng)有比較充分的依據(jù)。結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)，以及逐步強(qiáng)化的大氣污染防治目標(biāo)，可以確定一個(gè)碳排放總量的范圍。

在2014年11月的《中美氣候變化聯(lián)合聲明》中，中國(guó)已經(jīng)宣布計(jì)劃在2030年左右實(shí)現(xiàn)二氧化碳排放峰值，但并未明確峰值總量。

王毅早先接受中外對(duì)話專(zhuān)訪時(shí)談到“十三五”規(guī)劃期間，為了應(yīng)對(duì)嚴(yán)重灰霾等問(wèn)題，在約束性目標(biāo)方面，除了繼續(xù)執(zhí)行強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)(能源強(qiáng)度、碳強(qiáng)度)之外，應(yīng)該考慮更多的總量控制目標(biāo)。

這些目標(biāo)包括2020年碳排放強(qiáng)度在2005年基礎(chǔ)上下降40-45%， 2020年非化石能源消費(fèi)比例達(dá)到15%，2030年非化石能源消費(fèi)比例達(dá)到20%；2020年一次能源消費(fèi)總量控制在48億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤左右，煤炭消費(fèi)總量控制在42億噸左右等。

基于“2013年國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)”中的2013年能源消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)，清華大學(xué)低碳發(fā)展研究院、勞倫斯伯克利實(shí)驗(yàn)室等研究機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)此進(jìn)行了測(cè)算。測(cè)算顯示中國(guó)2030年的能源相關(guān)碳排放達(dá)到峰值時(shí)總量約在110億噸左右。

在《建議》中，王毅指出碳總量是涵蓋經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境全面發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的綜合性指標(biāo)，設(shè)定碳排放總量控制目標(biāo)能協(xié)調(diào)已有的能源、環(huán)境等約束性指標(biāo)，還能夠避免單純的使用能源總量約束帶來(lái)的潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展限制，為發(fā)展清潔能源留出創(chuàng)新空間。同時(shí)也是制定碳市場(chǎng)配額總量的基礎(chǔ)，可以提供長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的政策信號(hào)，提高市場(chǎng)活力，形成合理碳價(jià)格。

以往將碳強(qiáng)度指標(biāo)分配給省、市等地方政府，而實(shí)際排放源是企業(yè)。地方政府管理企業(yè)履行碳排放控制目標(biāo)，缺少制度基礎(chǔ)，客觀上存在排放主體與責(zé)任主體錯(cuò)配的問(wèn)題。

因此，王毅提出未來(lái)國(guó)家碳市場(chǎng)的設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)施，可以覆蓋主要行業(yè)的碳排放源，同時(shí)鼓勵(lì)有條件的地區(qū)爭(zhēng)取在2020年達(dá)到峰值。

石健，中外對(duì)話北京辦公室助理編輯

Wang Yi, a representative to China's communist-dominated legislature and director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Policy and Management, has proposed a science-based carbon cap to ensure China achieves peak carbon on schedule.

Based on predictions made in 2013 by a number of research institutions, Wang expects China’s carbon emissions to peak at about 11 billion tonnes in around 2030.

According to Wang’s proposal, a carbon cap is required if peak carbon is to be achieved by 2030, although reaching that goal is seen as having stronger motivation compared to Chinese policy earlier this decade. The 13th FYP aims at a more sustainable pace of economic growth and attempts to curb chronic air pollution.

In the November 2014 China-US Joint Statement on Climate Change, China announced that carbon emissions would peak around 2030 – but did not say at what level.

Wang has long been a proponent of energy and carbon intensity targets, and an overall carbon cap that could also help in the fight against smog.

See also: A carbon cap would show China's determination to tackle climate change

Those existing targets include a 40%-45% drop in carbon intensity on 2005 levels by 2020; increasing non-fossil fuel sources of energy to 15% of the energy mix by 2020 and 20% by 2030; and for primary energy consumption to be held at about 4.8 billion tonnes of coal equivalent.

The Chinese government has also mandated that total coal consumption should be capped around 4.2 billion tonnes by 2020.

Research bodies including Tsinghua University’s Laboratory of Low Carbon Energy and the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory have predicted that China’s total carbon emissions from energy consumption would peak at about 11 billion tonnes in 2030.

Wang’s proposal says a carbon cap would avoid possible restrictions on economic growth that might result from a simple energy cap, and allow space for development of clean energy.

A cap also provides the foundation for carbon markets and quotas, by sending a long-term price signal to individual companies.